Backtest

Loading sourceโ€ฆ Source Wallet Idle
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How each window was settled

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A window's winner is the resolution Polymarket published, or โ€” when asked for โ€” the last TWAP published inside it against twap_open, which is what these markets resolve on. On the TWAP a window without a usable average falls back to the published resolution, and wherever Polymarket published one anyway the two are compared: that check is the only thing standing between this page and a plausible P&L scored off the wrong number.

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Replay ยท P&L
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on the selected fill assumption
Replay ยท windows won
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scored windows entered
Actual ยท P&L
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what really traded, same windows
Actual ยท windows won
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scored windows traded
Overlap
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windows both were in

Under all three fill assumptions

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The truth sits between these three, not on any one of them.

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Cumulative P&L

replay actual

Realised P&L running through the windows in the order they traded. Both lines carry forward across windows the other one was alone in, so the gap between them is the whole comparison.

P&L per window

won lost

Each window the strategy entered, on its own. A window holding both sides is paid on its winning leg and loses the other, so what it made is that leg's shares against everything both legs cost.

Result per window

One row per window, newest first: what the replay would have done against what really traded. Select a row to open that window on the live dashboard.

Binance is the first sharp move the replay bought on, in dollars as it crossed the bar โ€” positive a rise (bought Up), negative a drop (bought Down). Where the replay stood aside, the gate named is the one that refused it for the most seconds, not whichever one happened to have the last word.

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Gates that stopped an entry

Counted per evaluated snapshot after the entry delay, over every window in range โ€” including a move that cleared the gates and was let go because the window's budget was spent. Snapshots inside the delay are not counted; they would bury everything that actually decided something.

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What this run replayed

The source file, the range it covered, and the gates it ran with.

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